Only Thing Worse Than a Monday...

A Tuesday following opening weekend of NFL football. I had this past Monday off after a full day of football and geez, maybe should have considered Tuesday as well :) I have declared the first full Sunday of football an "unofficial" national holiday, right in there with Labor Day!





We're now fully into mid September and a check of long range computer models into the 10+ day timeframe are showcasing the strongest cold fronts we have seen in months. It's only a matter of time before the first front of the season passes across west central Florida with much lower humidity and daily highs in the 70s to mid 80s! The attached image is off the GFS model in the 10 day forecast period. In the image, continental polar air is making a run toward the northern tier of the United States. An air mass of that magnitude could bring the first taste of frost to many areas in the northern part of the country.

The days of open windows and sliding glass doors to let a fresh cross-breeze through the house will be a welcome sight. Despite the fact this September is -0.8 degrees cooler than normal, May thru August have all been above average by a range of +0.7 to +1.5 degrees.

Naturally, hotter than normal also translates into higher than normal cooling bills!

The most impressive "non" official tropical system

Watching the past few days an area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic has really been astonishing. I can't recall the last time I felt a disturbed area of weather was on the verge of seeing an upgrade to a depression or even skipping to a tropical storm.



Essentially, each day we've seen the development of nocturnal thunderstorms into a large mesoscale convective complex. With warm ocean water and a fairly good environment to take this MCC to the next level as a functioning depression or tropical storm, we'd typically see surface pressures fall with the development of a low level circulation. Instead, for the second straight day I've been on-air discussing how close we are to an upgrade only to watch the low level circulation not enclose... incredible.


















I'll attach a chart showcasing satellite estimated wind speeds and direction within this large expansive complex of storms. Indeed, we can see evidence of a trough of low pressure with the wave but not the closed circulation we'd expect to see. I drew flow pattern arrows on to the image to better illustrate the morning circulation roughly 10 meters above the surface.



















Hurricane hunters will perform an air recon mission today to investigate this complex / disturbed area of weather further. We shall see if I'll be going on-air for a third straight day to talk about the "soon to be tropical depression or storm"... impressive.

Mid July Review...

Working now a solid month and a half into this tropical season and thus far, it has been nice and quiet. Admittedly for the first time in many weeks, I actually have some interest in current tropical weather ongoing far out in the Atlantic. It's not even on the NHC radar so to speak but the ITCZ is flaring up off of Africa, much more than weeks gone by and this is a zone that will need to be watched for low pressure development. Model data is very wish-washy but is attempting to latch on to a weak surface low in the days ahead. We'll see... other data shows little to no activity. So... we'll monitor and see if this area flares up a tropical system.

I recently (7/10 to 7 /12) took a trip to Spartanburg, SC for a wedding. I was a groomsmen in this wedding for a former production assistant I worked with in Charlotte at WBTV. It was a beautiful wedding with a round of golf squeezed in. Interestingly enough, I found dew points in the 60s now qualify as "dry, crisp" conditions after nearly a year in Florida and wow, you forget just how beautiful our skies are here!!! I told my wife Kara how disappointed she'd be with her camera to see the partly sunny, murky with haze skies in South Carolina unlike the clear, tropical skies we get!!

Finally, I blogged about dance lessons. In short, they're going very well after 2 lessons and I think I'm actually learning to "slow, quick step, quick step" without watching my feet-hah! Our instructor is out of state for much of the month but we'll resume with her in a little more than a week. There is hope yet!!!

Blast Furnace Heat and Dance Shoes ?!

#1. Tropics are nice and quiet. A little less than a week ago there was a little curiousity with the western half of the Caribbean with a weak upper low that may have tried to spin something up. This scenario certainly did not evolve, and as of now, a check of the next 5 to 10 days shows very little unless something develops with little notice. Over the next few days, the only real area of potential might be off the Carolina's coast with a front and potential area of low pressure but this is really a long shot.

#2. And wow, this has been a hot and humid stretch of weather. Our average high this time of year is 89, so 90+ over the past 7 days along with the next 5 to 6 days is ahead of the curve! However, lets remember June of 2008 that featured 90+ for the first 15 days of the month and two of those days were 97 and 98!!!! Yikes!

#3. Well, the dancing shoes will be going on this Friday as my wife and I take dance lessons. It's time to get that monkey off my back and learn a few moves. I have a few fears in life or things that make me uncomfortable... snakes, spiders and dance floors-hah! Kara and I hope to learn to salsa and foxtrot... maybe a cha-cha too. We'll see what shakes when all is said and done. No pun intended:)

Still Watching Tropics and...

It is plainly obvious our assortment of weather models are having a difficult time honing in on a consensus solution with the western half of the Caribbean. All models seem to develop a weak surface low to some extent but certainly are not going hog wild with a full blown tropical system. Conditions at the moment are not favorable for organization and development with persistent wind shear ripping across the Caribbean associated with an upper level trough. That said, it does appear shear will relax somewhat later in the week and this area could become a little more favorable. I'll attach an image off the overnight run of the GFS model for this upcoming Friday. Clearly we still have a circulation but it's not as deep or organized as some past model runs. This is not to say we can discount this long range forecast... given time of year, climatology and a somewhat improved environment by week's end into the weekend, it certainly will merit our attention.

And last but not least... not sure how many Detroit Red Wing hockey fans are out there but wow, welcome back Pavel Datsyuk!! I've been a loyal fan for years of this club going back to the rookie days of Steve Yzerman and will admit I was offly queasy going into game 5. Little did I know just how much Datsyuk brings to this team. My fingers are crossed it will solve the Igloo riddle in game 6 and we can hoist a back-to-back Stanley Cup trophy!

Something Worth Keeping an Eye on

For a couple of days now and multiple runs of computer model data into the 6 to 8 day timeframe, consistency has remained high on trying to develop a tropical system in the Caribbean and bring it north across Cuba. The area of interest begins around Central America where surface pressures generally fall in the 2 to 3 day timeframe from today and ultimately climatology which favors the western half of the Caribbean for tropical development takes hold. I'll attach an image going just over 5 days out and it will be pretty easy to spot this tropical system.

This is only in a distant watch mode right now as we monitor any potential thunderstorm clusters near Central America that could become a source point for tropical development. You can track infrared satellite imagery in this region on our forecastfirst.com weather web page. Just scroll halfway down the page to the tropical loop to see the suspect area. A few other weather models indicate a weak low in this same general region which only builds forecast suspicion.

If something were to take shape, well, that becomes an interesting proposition as a large ridge in the Atlantic combined with a potential trough of low pressure over Texas next week would create a mean steering current to the north and that puts Cuba, Bahamas and Florida into play. So while it's extremely early in the game, lets keep an eye on this area and see what churns... if anything. Models have improved tremendously over recent years but can still push out false alarm systems. I'll be very interested in the next two days worth of model data along with satellite imagery in this part of the tropics!