Something Worth Keeping an Eye on

For a couple of days now and multiple runs of computer model data into the 6 to 8 day timeframe, consistency has remained high on trying to develop a tropical system in the Caribbean and bring it north across Cuba. The area of interest begins around Central America where surface pressures generally fall in the 2 to 3 day timeframe from today and ultimately climatology which favors the western half of the Caribbean for tropical development takes hold. I'll attach an image going just over 5 days out and it will be pretty easy to spot this tropical system.

This is only in a distant watch mode right now as we monitor any potential thunderstorm clusters near Central America that could become a source point for tropical development. You can track infrared satellite imagery in this region on our forecastfirst.com weather web page. Just scroll halfway down the page to the tropical loop to see the suspect area. A few other weather models indicate a weak low in this same general region which only builds forecast suspicion.

If something were to take shape, well, that becomes an interesting proposition as a large ridge in the Atlantic combined with a potential trough of low pressure over Texas next week would create a mean steering current to the north and that puts Cuba, Bahamas and Florida into play. So while it's extremely early in the game, lets keep an eye on this area and see what churns... if anything. Models have improved tremendously over recent years but can still push out false alarm systems. I'll be very interested in the next two days worth of model data along with satellite imagery in this part of the tropics!